Assessing The Risks: Trump's Iran Policy And Its Effect On Israel

Viktoria Ivanova

5 min read

Post on May 31, 2025

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Maximum Pressure Campaign: Sanctions and Their Impact on Iran and Israel

Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran centered on crippling economic sanctions. The goal was to severely restrict Iran's access to global finance and limit its ability to fund its regional proxies and pursue its nuclear ambitions. This policy aimed to force Iran back to the negotiating table for a more favorable nuclear deal.

The impact of these sanctions on Iran was multifaceted. Economically, the Iranian rial plummeted, inflation soared, and ordinary citizens suffered. Politically, the sanctions strained Iran's relationship with other nations, impacting its regional influence. However, the sanctions’ effectiveness in deterring Iranian aggression remains debatable.

From Israel's perspective, the sanctions presented a complex picture. While the pressure on Iran's economy and ability to fund its proxies could be seen as beneficial, the sanctions also created instability, potentially leading to unpredictable consequences.

• Impact on Iranian nuclear program: While the sanctions slowed down some aspects of Iran's nuclear program, they did not halt it entirely.
• Effect on Iranian economy and society: The sanctions led to widespread economic hardship and social unrest within Iran.
• Shift in regional alliances due to sanctions: Iran sought closer ties with countries less affected by US sanctions, shifting regional alliances.
• Israeli security concerns mitigated or exacerbated?: While some argue that the sanctions reduced Iranian aggression, others contend that the economic hardship increased the risk of escalation.

Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and its Ramifications

Trump's decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018 was a watershed moment. He cited flaws in the agreement and Iran's continued support for terrorism as justifications. This unilateral withdrawal undermined international efforts to constrain Iran's nuclear capabilities.

The withdrawal significantly impacted Israeli security. With the removal of international monitoring and limitations on Iran's enrichment capabilities, concerns about a potential Iranian nuclear weapon escalated.

• Increased risk of Iranian nuclear weapons development?: The withdrawal arguably increased the likelihood of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, albeit the exact timeline remains uncertain.
• Impact on regional stability and potential for conflict: The withdrawal fueled regional instability and increased the risk of direct or proxy conflicts.
• How did Israel respond to the US withdrawal?: Israel largely welcomed the withdrawal, viewing the JCPOA as insufficiently restrictive.
• Did the withdrawal strengthen or weaken international cooperation?: The withdrawal weakened international cooperation and trust, eroding the global consensus on containing Iran's nuclear program.

Increased Regional Tensions and Proxy Conflicts

Trump's Iran policy coincided with a rise in regional tensions and proxy conflicts. Iranian-backed militias in countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen actively challenged regional rivals, directly and indirectly impacting Israel’s security.

Israel responded to these increased threats with military actions, airstrikes, and intelligence operations targeting Iranian assets and proxies. The heightened tensions also involved other regional actors, including Saudi Arabia, further complicating the situation and increasing the risk of miscalculation and wider conflict.

• Specific examples of proxy conflicts involving Iran and its allies: The conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon all bore the fingerprints of Iranian influence and support for proxy groups.
• Israeli military operations in response to Iranian activity: Israel carried out numerous airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.
• The role of other regional actors (e.g., Saudi Arabia) in escalating tensions: Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran fueled regional instability, impacting Israel's security indirectly.
• Potential for unintended consequences and escalation: The heightened tensions and the use of proxy groups increased the risk of wider conflicts and unintended escalation.

Trump's Legacy: Long-Term Effects on the Israel-Iran Dynamic

Trump's Iran policy left a lasting legacy on the Israel-Iran dynamic. While the “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to curb Iranian influence, its long-term impact on Israel’s security remains a subject of debate. It is uncertain whether the heightened tensions and increased regional instability ultimately advanced or hindered Israel's long-term strategic interests.

• Changes in the regional power balance: The sanctions and the withdrawal from the JCPOA altered the regional balance of power, strengthening some of Iran's adversaries and potentially weakening Iran's influence in the long run.
• Shift in US-Israel-Iran relations: The relationship between the US, Israel, and Iran has been profoundly shaped by Trump's policies, creating a new era of uncertainty.
• Lessons learned from Trump’s approach: The effectiveness of the "maximum pressure" campaign and the long-term implications of withdrawing from the JCPOA remain to be fully assessed.
• Potential future scenarios: The future of the Israel-Iran dynamic remains uncertain, contingent on future US policy, Iranian actions, and the actions of other regional actors.

Assessing the Risks: Trump's Iran Policy and its Lasting Impact on Israel

Trump's Iran policy presented both opportunities and risks for Israel. While the “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to curtail Iranian aggression, it also created a more unpredictable and volatile regional environment. The withdrawal from the JCPOA increased concerns about Iran's nuclear program. Ultimately, whether Trump's approach ultimately benefitted or harmed Israel's long-term security interests is a complex question with no easy answer. Continued research and informed discussion are crucial to understand the implications of Trump's legacy and formulate effective strategies for managing the risks to Israel's security in the volatile Middle East. We encourage you to continue researching and engaging in informed discussions about Trump's Iran policy, Israel's security, and regional stability.