Should You Ever Intentionally Walk Aaron Judge? A Baseball Manager's Dilemma

Viktoria Ivanova

5 min read

Post on May 14, 2025

4.1

Share

The Case for Intentionally Walking Aaron Judge

The decision to intentionally walk a player as dominant as Aaron Judge often hinges on mitigating risk. The potential consequences of letting him swing can be devastating.

Protecting the Bases

The most compelling argument for an intentional walk is the protection of bases.

• Increased Run Potential: A Judge home run with runners on base can instantly change the momentum of the game, potentially leading to a significant increase in runs. A single runner on first base suddenly turns into a three-run homer, completely altering the game's trajectory.
• Team Morale and Pitcher Confidence: Giving up a grand slam to Judge can severely damage a pitching staff's confidence and negatively impact the team's morale. An intentional walk prevents this potential crisis.
• Bases Loaded Scenario: A runner on first base is a manageable situation. However, a bases-loaded scenario amplifies the danger exponentially. A single, a walk, or even a softly hit ball can easily lead to more runs than an intentional walk would concede.

Strategic Pitching Considerations

Sometimes, intentionally walking Judge is a calculated move to set up a more favorable matchup.

• On-Deck Batter: If a weaker hitter is on deck, a manager might prefer to intentionally walk Judge to face the less potent batter. This strategy hinges on assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitters in the lineup.
• Pitcher's Repertoire: The effectiveness of a particular pitcher's arsenal also plays a role. If a pitcher lacks the pitches to effectively challenge Judge, intentionally walking him might be the prudent choice. For instance, a pitcher with limited breaking balls might struggle to get Judge out.
• Defensive Shifts: Intentionally walking Judge might allow for a more effective defensive shift against the subsequent batter. A right-handed power hitter might be more susceptible to a shift designed to minimize the chances of a hit or extra-base hit.

The Case Against Intentionally Walking Aaron Judge

While the risks of letting Judge swing are considerable, intentionally walking him isn't without its own drawbacks.

The Risk of Loading the Bases

Intentionally walking Judge loads the bases, increasing the chances of runners scoring even with a less powerful hitter at bat.

• Increased Scoring Opportunities: Even with a weaker hitter at bat, there is always a risk of walks, errors, wild pitches, passed balls, and other scenarios that can lead to runs scoring. Statistics consistently demonstrate a higher probability of runs with bases loaded.
• High-Levarage Situations: In high-pressure situations, the chances of mistakes increase, making the risk of loading the bases significantly higher.

Judge's Discipline and Patience at the Plate

Judge’s impressive on-base percentage is a significant factor against an intentional walk.

• On-Base Percentage: Judge's ability to draw walks himself means that even an intentional walk doesn't guarantee an out. A manager must consider his strike zone judgment and ability to work counts.
• Plate Discipline: His discipline at the plate suggests that he may not always swing at pitches outside the strike zone, making the intentional walk less effective than anticipated.

The Psychological Impact

Intentionally walking Judge can have a detrimental psychological impact on the opposing team.

• Perceived Weakness: Intentionally walking a star hitter can be perceived as a sign of weakness, potentially boosting the confidence of Judge's team and negatively affecting the morale of the team issuing the intentional walk.

Data-Driven Decision Making in Baseball

Modern baseball utilizes advanced metrics to inform strategic decisions, including the "intentionally walk Aaron Judge" dilemma.

The Role of Advanced Metrics

Advanced metrics provide a more nuanced understanding of player performance.

• wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average): This metric considers all on-base outcomes, offering a comprehensive view of a player’s offensive contributions beyond batting average.
• wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): This statistic helps managers understand how many more runs a player creates compared to the league average, providing crucial context for the decision.
• Other Relevant Statistics: Contextual data such as situational hitting statistics, splits (against lefties/righties), and past performance against specific pitchers further refine the decision-making process.

Situational Context

The game situation dictates the strategy.

• Score and Inning: The score and inning play a major role. A late-inning situation with a close score might warrant a more aggressive approach, while a blowout game might see a different strategy.
• Game Context: Considering the overall game context, the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, and the remaining games in the season can inform the decision.

Conclusion

The decision of whether to intentionally walk Aaron Judge is a complex one, with compelling arguments on both sides. There's no universally correct answer; the optimal strategy is highly situational, dependent on factors like the game state, the opposing lineup, and the pitcher's capabilities. It requires a careful consideration of risks, potential rewards, and the application of advanced baseball analytics. So, what's your strategy? When, if ever, would you intentionally walk Aaron Judge?